I am still dealing with this problem.  Here is what I have learned so far.  If go into my site before the install and create a new home page without any modules on it AND I disable this line:

add name="Authentication" type="DotNetNuke.HttpModules.AuthenticationModule, DotNetNuke.HttpModules.Authentication" />
 

I was able to get in but I couldn't re-enable it.  Then 4.5.3 came out.   Here is my new error message.  Please help...my brain is frozen shut.

Configuration Error

Description: An error occurred during the processing of a configuration file required to service this request. Please review the specific error details below and modify your configuration file appropriately.

Parser Error Message: Could not load file or assembly 'DotNetNuke.HttpModules.Compression' or one of its dependencies. The system cannot find the file specified. (c:\hosting\webhost4life\member\clifton\townofclifton\web.config line 62)

Source Error:

Line 60:     <httpModules>
Line 61:       <add name="Authentication" type="DotNetNuke.HttpModules.AuthenticationModule, DotNetNuke.HttpModules.Authentication" />
Line 62:       <add name="Compression" type="DotNetNuke.HttpModules.Compression.HttpModule, DotNetNuke.HttpModules.Compression" />
Line 63:       <add name="RequestFilter" type="DotNetNuke.HttpModules.Compression.RequestFilter.HttpModule, DotNetNuke.HttpModules.Compression" />
Line 64:       <add name="UrlRewrite" type="DotNetNuke.HttpModules.UrlRewriteModule, DotNetNuke.HttpModules.UrlRewrite"/>

Try this.  It worked for me.

I restored my old 3.x database but left all the files in the dnn directory the same except for the web.config file.  I deleted the current web.config and brought over the renamed the release.config to web.config and manually filled in my sql server 2k credentials (commented out the sql express 2k5 statements) and copied the machine keys.  I then browsed to it and the installation ran, asking me no questions.  When it finished it was up and working fine.

I am not sure why this worked over the upgrade dialogue boxes so I can only guess.  The only thing I did different is to comment out both sql2k5 express settings and THEN browse to the site for the upgrade

Comment this out:

<!-- Connection String for SQL Server 2005 Express
    <add
      name="SiteSqlServer"
      connectionString="Data Source=.\SQLExpress;Integrated Security=True;User Instance=True;AttachDBFilename=|DataDirectory|Database.mdf;"
      providerName="System.Data.SqlClient" /> -->

Uncomment and fill in:

"Server=(local);Database=databasename;uid=databaseuser;pwd=;"

Obviously you would do the opposite if you are using sql2k5 express edition.  I really hope this helps others with this proble.  Please post if it does.  I am going to post this answer to the other threads on the same topic